ADVI expert Farooq Tirmizi, vice president of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) advisory, talks about the headwinds and tailwinds for skilled nursing facilities (SNF) including the pandemic’s impact on SNF, Medicare Advantage penetration, increasing post-acute care utilization, and of course the surge in the aging senior population.

Part of what is highlighted is that the pandemic hit SNF capacity right before a surge in demand. SNF volumes nosedived during the pandemic, largely due to an increased preference for home health during the worst of the COVID-19 outbreaks in nursing homes.

Source: ADVI SAVEs analysis of data from the Medicare Part A Standard Analytical Files, and MedPAC.

Total SNF stay days in the Medicare population are expected to go up by 17.8% by 2030, of which the bulk of the increase is the result of the retirement of the Baby Boomers, with increased MA penetration causing only a small decrease in utilization. 

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